Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_player_injury
Calibrated 100% · raw 495% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:15:51 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
4.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 495.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
2
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Felipe Jose Rivadeneira and Luis Carlos Alvarez in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Rivadeneira vs. Alvarez: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5' is highly skewed toward the 'Under' outcome, with a 99.95% implied probability, suggesting low expectations for a high-scoring second set.
A bullish outcome (Over 8.5 games) could materialize if both players engage in aggressive baseline rallies, frequent net play, or prolonged tiebreaks, leading to an extended second set with 9+ games.
The bearish outcome (Under 8.5 games) is likely if either player dominates with quick holds, short service games, or early set clinches, resulting in a low-total second set (≤8 games).
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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