Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: player_injury
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:19:46 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,743
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Rio Noguchi and Alex Martinez in the Cary, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Noguchi vs. Martinez match total games (O/U 21.5) is evenly split at 50%, indicating high uncertainty due to limited public data on both players' styles and head-to-head history. The market's midpoint suggests an expectation of a tightly contested match with potential for either a high-scoring or low-scoring outcome.
A bullish outcome (Over 21.5 games) could materialize if both players are aggressive baseline specialists, favoring long rallies and frequent breaks. External factors like favorable weather conditions (e.g., high humidity slowing ball speed) or court surface (slower hard court) may also contribute to extended games.
A bearish outcome (Under 21.5 games) is plausible if either player is a dominant server or returns specialist, minimizing break opportunities. Short, efficient matches (e.g., two tight sets with few breaks) are more likely if one player dominates with aces and unreturned serves. Unexpected retirements or medical timeouts could also skew the result downward.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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