Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Weather delays or match postponement invalidating set 3 completion
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:00:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 95.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Flavio Cobolli in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 3 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 3 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 3 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 3 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Navone vs. Cobolli set 3 games over/under 9.5 is highly skewed toward the 'Under' outcome, with a 0.05% probability assigned to the 'Over' scenario. The extreme market thinness suggests minimal conviction or interest in the event.
A bullish outcome (Over 9.5) could materialize if both players engage in aggressive baseline rallies, frequent net approaches, or extended rallies due to slower court conditions. High first-serve percentages and shorter points would reduce total games, but a counter-trend of longer rallies or tiebreaks in set 3 could push the total to 10+ games.
The 'Under' outcome is overwhelmingly likely due to the inherent structure of tennis sets, where games are typically won in quick succession (e.g., 6-3, 6-4). Set 3 rarely exceeds 9 games unless a tiebreak is played, which is uncommon in early rounds of Wimbledon. The resolution criteria further dilute the 'Over' probability by defaulting to 50-50 if set 3 is not completed.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
