Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Lack of pre-tournament performance data for both players
Calibrated 100% · raw 4995% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 10:45:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+50.0
Opportunity
47.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,685,719
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4995.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Mwendwa Mbithi and Matias Soto in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the total games in Set 1 of Mbithi vs. Soto (O/U 8.5) shows near-unanimous consensus for the 'Under' outcome, with a 0.50% market probability. The match's unresolved status and lack of recent performance data heavily influence this outcome.
A high-scoring first set (9+ games) could occur if both players engage in aggressive baseline rallies or frequent net play, leading to shorter points and more games. Unforced errors or inconsistent serving could also inflate the total.
A low-scoring first set (≤8 games) is likely if either player dominates with powerful serves or if the match features many breaks of serve, resulting in fewer completed games. Defensive play or rain delays could also suppress the total.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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