Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 4995% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 10:45:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+50.0
Opportunity
7.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4995.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Mwendwa Mbithi and Matias Soto in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Mbithi vs. Soto first-set games over/under 10.5 is highly balanced with a 50% probability, reflecting minimal market confidence in either outcome. The neutral baseline is driven by the lack of publicized player form, surface specifics, or head-to-head data.
A bullish outcome (Over 10.5 games) could materialize if both players engage in a high-intensity baseline rally or serve-dominant match with frequent breaks, typical of clay court dynamics. Historical precedent in Challenger events often favors extended sets, especially in non-tiebreak formats.
A bearish outcome (Under 10.5 games) may occur if one player dominates with aggressive serving or if the match concludes swiftly due to a lopsided scoreline. Early retirements or medical issues could also truncate the set, though such scenarios are less likely without prior indicators.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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