Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match abandonment due to injury or external factors
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:33:02 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
25%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
2.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Rafael Jodar vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Total Games O/U
correlates · strength 60%
Rafael Jodar vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Match Winner
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,446,153
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -250.0¢
Entry: 25-31
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
25 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Shintaro Mochizuki in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 5. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Rafael Jodar vs. Shintaro Mochizuki total sets over/under 4.5 is currently priced at 27.50%, indicating a low probability of the match exceeding 4 sets. This suggests expectations of a relatively quick or decisive outcome.
A bullish scenario would involve both players engaging in an aggressive, high-intensity match with frequent breaks of serve, leading to extended rallies and potential five-set outcomes. This could be driven by both players' styles favoring longer matches or external factors like favorable weather conditions prolonging play.
A bearish scenario would see the match conclude in fewer than 5 sets, likely due to one player dominating with powerful serves or quick adaptations to the opponent's weaknesses. Factors like fatigue, injury, or tactical adjustments could contribute to a shorter match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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