Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay due to external factors (e.g., weather, scheduling conflicts)
Calibrated 100% · raw 4945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 9:45:54 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
-49.5
Opportunity
32.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4945.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
5 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Casanova/Sakamoto and Galarraga/Yunez in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the tennis match Casanova/Sakamoto vs. Galarraga/Yunez Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 is currently balanced at 50.50%, indicating no clear consensus on whether the first set will exceed 9.5 games. The neutral probability suggests high uncertainty due to limited available data on the players' recent form or head-to-head history.
The bull case assumes both doubles teams are offensively strong, favoring high-scoring rallies and frequent breaks, leading to a first set with 10+ games. Casanova/Sakamoto or Galarraga/Yunez may have recent performances indicating aggressive playstyles, increasing the likelihood of an over outcome.
The bear case posits a defensive or slow-paced match with long rallies and few breaks, resulting in fewer than 10 games in the first set. Potential factors include fatigue, unfavorable playing conditions, or both teams prioritizing consistency over aggression, favoring an under outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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