Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Incomplete set resolution (50-50) due to external delays or player withdrawal
AI updated 6/29/2026, 9:45:48 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV -45.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Casanova/Sakamoto and Galarraga/Yunez in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Casanova/Sakamoto vs. Galarraga/Yunez tennis match first set games over/under 8.5 is currently balanced at 50.45%, indicating no clear consensus on the likely outcome. The 50-50 resolution conditions (incomplete set, cancellation, or delay) introduce significant uncertainty.
The over 8.5 games outcome is supported by the potential for an aggressive baseline game style from either pair, particularly if both teams favor serve-and-volley tactics. Weather conditions in Quito (mild high-altitude climate) may also reduce the likelihood of rain delays, increasing the chance of a full set completion.
The under 8.5 games outcome is plausible if either team employs a defensive, counter-punching strategy that prolongs points and games. External factors such as player fatigue, injury, or unfavorable wind conditions could shorten the set. Additionally, a dominant server on either side may limit total games.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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