Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_player_injury_or_withdrawal
Calibrated 100% · raw 4945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 10:00:21 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
-49.5
Opportunity
32.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4945.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
4 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Casanova/Sakamoto and Galarraga/Yunez in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the first-set games over/under 10.5 in the Casanova/Sakamoto vs. Galarraga/Yunez tennis match is nearly evenly split, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome. The 50.50% probability suggests no clear favorite between the two teams.
A bullish outcome (Over 10.5 games) could materialize if the match features aggressive serving, frequent break opportunities, or a high number of tiebreaks, increasing the set's duration. High-altitude conditions in Quito may favor baseline rallies, prolonging the set.
A bearish outcome (Under 10.5 games) may occur if either team dominates with powerful serves or holds easily, minimizing breaks and extending the set's brevity. Weather disruptions or early retirement could also truncate the set.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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