Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: incomplete_match_resolution
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:23:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,296
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Barrena/Collarini and Arias/Ingildsen in the Milan, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Barrena/Collarini vs. Arias/Ingildsen Set 2 Games Over/Under 8.5 is evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty due to limited match data and external factors. The neutral probability aligns with the default resolution conditions for incomplete or canceled matches.
The 'Over' outcome is supported by the potential for an aggressive playing style from either pair, leading to extended rallies and higher game counts. The inclusion of tiebreaks (counting as one game) could push the total toward or above 9 games. Historical data from similar Challenger events suggests variability in set lengths.
The 'Under' outcome is plausible if either duo employs a serve-and-volley or power-baseline strategy, resulting in quick points and fewer games per set. Weather disruptions, player fatigue, or early match conclusion (e.g., retirement) could also drive the total below 9 games. Past performance in this tournament may favor shorter sets.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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