This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Key risk: high level of repression suppressing dissent
Calibrated 100% · raw 8615% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 2:04:30 AM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Crowd Consensus
93%
ORYN Consensus
7%
Signal Score
-86.2
Opportunity
80.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market strongly favors Aleksandar Vučić remaining President of Serbia through June 30, 2026, with a 93.15% probability. The high confidence reflects his entrenched political control and lack of credible succession threats.
Vučić maintains power through strong institutional control, economic stability, and suppression of opposition. His alliance with Russia and China secures external backing, while domestic reforms and patronage networks ensure continued electoral dominance.
A sudden shift in public sentiment, elite defections, or a constitutional crisis could force Vučić's resignation. Economic deterioration, protests, or pressure from the EU/US might undermine his authority before the 2026 deadline.
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Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 93.2% while ORYN AI estimates 7%.
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