Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: high level of repression suppressing dissent
Calibrated 100% · raw 8615% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:34:39 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
93%
ORYN Consensus
7%
Signal Score
-86.2
Opportunity
80.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -8615.0¢
Entry: 90-96
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market strongly favors Aleksandar Vučić remaining President of Serbia through June 30, 2026, with a 93.15% probability. The high confidence reflects his entrenched political control and lack of credible succession threats.
Vučić maintains power through strong institutional control, economic stability, and suppression of opposition. His alliance with Russia and China secures external backing, while domestic reforms and patronage networks ensure continued electoral dominance.
A sudden shift in public sentiment, elite defections, or a constitutional crisis could force Vučić's resignation. Economic deterioration, protests, or pressure from the EU/US might undermine his authority before the 2026 deadline.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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