Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected supply disruptions (e.g., hurricanes, strikes)
Calibrated 100% · raw 350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 3:15:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 25% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
-3.5
Opportunity
3.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,768,902
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -350.0¢
Entry: 11-17
—
Resolution
14h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures (WTI) on June 30, 2026, is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" value for the relevant 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for WTI Crude Oil closing above $72 on June 30, 2026, shows a low probability (10.50%) of resolution, indicating strong skepticism about such an outcome. Historical WTI price trends and futures market dynamics suggest significant headwinds to achieving this threshold.
A sustained rally in WTI could materialize if OPEC+ extends production cuts beyond current plans, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate supply risks, or global oil demand surges unexpectedly (e.g., due to economic recovery or supply chain disruptions). Stronger-than-expected U.S. shale production slowdowns could also tighten supply.
Persistent structural oversupply, weak global demand (e.g., due to recession fears or energy transition policies), or unexpected increases in U.S. shale production could suppress WTI prices below $72. Additionally, a strong U.S. dollar or policy interventions (e.g., strategic petroleum reserve releases) could cap price gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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