Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Netflix's ranking methodology updates
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:16:32 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,950
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a 50% probability that 'Worst Neighbor Ever' will be the top US Netflix show for the week ending June 29, 2026. This reflects moderate uncertainty given the show's recent performance trends and competition.
The show's recent viral marketing campaign and strong word-of-mouth could drive unprecedented viewership, securing its position as the top Netflix show. Its unique premise and binge-worthy episodes may appeal to a broad US audience.
Competition from established shows like 'Stranger Things' or 'The Crown' could overshadow 'Worst Neighbor Ever'. Declining subscriber engagement with reality TV formats may reduce its ranking potential.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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