Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Expanded tournament format diluting chances
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:49:40 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.2
Opportunity
0.2
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 20.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Uzbekistan has a very low probability (0.80%) of advancing to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup due to the tournament's expanded format (48 teams), high competition in their group, and historical performance trends.
Uzbekistan could advance if they benefit from a favorable group draw, experience a resurgence in form, or if other teams in their group underperform significantly. Their recent AFC Asian Cup performances and development of young talent could provide a pathway.
Uzbekistan faces significant challenges due to the increased competition in the expanded World Cup format. Historical World Cup performances (never qualified) and the strength of likely group opponents (e.g., South Korea, Iran) make advancement highly unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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