Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Historical underperformance in World Cup knockout stages
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:15:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
17%
ORYN Consensus
17%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,664
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 14-20
—
Resolution
13d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (17%) that the USA will reach the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This reflects historical performance, competitive landscape, and structural challenges in US soccer development.
The USA could reach the semifinals if key young talents (e.g., players from the 2026 World Cup cycle) mature rapidly, tactical improvements under a new coach materialize, and favorable group-stage matchups occur. Hosting matches in the US may also provide logistical advantages and fan support.
The USA may struggle due to a historically weak record in knockout stages, limited depth in critical positions, and strong competition from traditional powerhouses like Brazil, Argentina, or European teams. Injuries to key players or poor form in qualifiers could further reduce chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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