Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected inflation spikes or deflationary pressures
Calibrated 100% · raw 1250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:36:12 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
34%
ORYN Consensus
46%
Signal Score
+12.5
Opportunity
8.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024? is neutrally correlated with Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0% and 0.1% as there is no apparent direct link between the two events
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1250.0¢
Entry: 31-36
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a near-even chance (46%) that UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 will fall within the 0% to 0.1% range, indicating significant uncertainty about the economy's performance. This reflects a cautious outlook, with risks skewed toward stagnation or minimal growth.
A bullish scenario could emerge if fiscal stimulus, strong consumer demand, or unexpected productivity gains drive growth above expectations. External factors like a global economic rebound or favorable trade conditions could also push GDP into the positive range.
A bearish scenario could unfold if persistent inflation, tight monetary policy, or geopolitical tensions stifle economic activity. Structural issues, such as labor market weakness or supply chain disruptions, might also keep growth flat or negative.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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