This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Key risk: Unexpected inflation spikes or deflationary pressures
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:36:12 PM
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
46%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market suggests a near-even chance (46%) that UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 will fall within the 0% to 0.1% range, indicating significant uncertainty about the economy's performance. This reflects a cautious outlook, with risks skewed toward stagnation or minimal growth.
A bullish scenario could emerge if fiscal stimulus, strong consumer demand, or unexpected productivity gains drive growth above expectations. External factors like a global economic rebound or favorable trade conditions could also push GDP into the positive range.
A bearish scenario could unfold if persistent inflation, tight monetary policy, or geopolitical tensions stifle economic activity. Structural issues, such as labor market weakness or supply chain disruptions, might also keep growth flat or negative.
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Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 45.5% while ORYN AI estimates 46%.
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