Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries or unexpected career downturns for Aspinall
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:07:22 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 10.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
132d
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the fighter that is ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If, for any reason, there is no fighter ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at this market’s check-time, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Tom Aspinall being ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings by the end of 2026 is extremely low at 0.60%, reflecting his current standing and competitive landscape in the heavyweight division.
A surge in Aspinall's performance, including multiple high-profile wins against top-ranked heavyweights and potential dominance in the division, could propel him to the top of the Pound-For-Pound rankings by 2026.
Given his current position in the heavyweight division and the dominance of other fighters like Jon Jones, Stipe Miocic, and Ciryl Gane, Aspinall faces significant challenges in ascending to the top of the P4P rankings.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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