Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential backlash from Iran (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks, or regional escalation)
Calibrated 100% · raw 1410% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:45:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
+14.1
Opportunity
12.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1410.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
42 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of the UK designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, remains low at 14.80%, reflecting historical reluctance and geopolitical considerations. Formal designation requires concrete legislative or executive action, not just rhetoric or advisory statements.
The UK could designate the IRGC due to increasing pressure from allies (e.g., US, EU) and domestic political shifts favoring stricter Iran policies. A high-profile incident involving Iranian proxies in Europe or the Middle East could accelerate the process.
The UK may avoid designation to maintain diplomatic channels with Iran, especially if negotiations on nuclear or regional security are ongoing. Legal and bureaucratic hurdles, along with potential backlash from Iran or domestic stakeholders, could delay or prevent action.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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