Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected technical challenges or safety concerns delaying release
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:45:59 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
53%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
1.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -250.0¢
Entry: 50-56
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
17 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Google's next Gemini Pro model release by July 24, 2026, currently stands at 50%, indicating a balanced outlook. The outcome hinges on Google's development and public release timeline for its next Pro-tier model.
Google may accelerate the release of the next Gemini Pro model to maintain competitive parity with rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic, leveraging recent advancements in multimodal AI capabilities. A public beta or GA promotion of an existing preview model could trigger early resolution as 'Yes'.
Delays in model development or internal testing could push the release beyond July 24, 2026, especially if Google prioritizes stability and safety over speed. Competitive pressure might not be sufficient to force an earlier launch.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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