A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Key risk: Overestimation of Morena's second-place probability due to polling biases
AI updated 6/26/2026, 12:55:54 PM
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
6%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
As of current polling and political trends, Morena has a low but non-negligible probability (5.80%) of securing the second most seats in Mexico's 2027 legislative election. The ruling party's dominance and opposition fragmentation heavily influence this assessment.
Morena could secure the second most seats if opposition parties (PRI, PAN, PRD) fragment their votes, allowing Morena to outperform expectations in key swing states like Mexico City, Jalisco, and Nuevo León. A strong anti-incumbency wave or policy missteps by leading opposition parties could also benefit Morena indirectly.
Morena's dominance in recent elections makes it unlikely to finish second, as it is more probable to win the most seats outright. If opposition parties unite under a single coalition or if Morena's popularity wanes due to economic stagnation or corruption scandals, Morena could fall further behind the leading opposition bloc.
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Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 6% while ORYN AI estimates 5.8%.
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