Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential cancellation or postponement of EWC 2026 beyond resolution deadline
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 11:01:07 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,158,652
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the listed hero picked the most times during EWC Dota 2026, originally scheduled for July 7-July 19, 2026. Only completed games will be considered for the purposes of this markets, including forfeits in games that start. In the case of a tie, this market will resolve to the hero with the higher win percentage. In case a tie persists, this market will resolve to the hero with higher ban rate. In case a tie still persists the market will resolve to the hero whose name comes first alphabetically. If a match does not complete for any reason, it will not be considered for the purposes of this market. If the competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the results of EWC Dota 2 is not determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information Dotabuff. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for 'Will Spectre Be the Most Picked Hero at the Dota EWC 2026?' currently stands at 50%, indicating a balanced expectation with no clear consensus on Spectre's dominance. Resolution depends on in-game statistics, tiebreaker rules, and official Dotabuff data.
Spectre's high mobility and kill potential make her a strong candidate for frequent picks in high-stakes tournaments like EWC 2026. Meta shifts favoring late-game scaling heroes could increase her selection rate. Historical trends show Spectre's ban/pick rates fluctuate with patch changes, potentially aligning with tournament strategies.
Spectre's reliance on items and experience may limit her viability in early-game focused meta strategies. Counters like Bane or Slardar could suppress her pick rate. If the tournament favors aggressive or early-game heroes, Spectre's selection may decline relative to other carries.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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