Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: An unexpected significant health event for Justice Alito.
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:00:24 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| gemini | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
49%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,028,553
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 45-52
—
Resolution
184d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market on Justice Samuel Alito's retirement by September 30, 2026, currently stands at 48.50%, indicating a near-even probability. This reflects significant uncertainty regarding whether the conservative justice will step down, with the market considering any announcement of retirement regardless of its effective date. Key factors include his age, health, and the political landscape.
Justice Alito will be 76 by the resolution date, an age where many justices consider retirement due to the demanding nature of the role or a desire for personal time. Strategic timing to retire under a favorable political administration, or increasing public scrutiny and political pressure, could also prompt an announcement. Health considerations, even minor ones, could also play a role.
Justice Alito is a staunch conservative and a key member of the Court's current ideological majority, suggesting a strong commitment to remaining on the bench to influence jurisprudence. He may wish to avoid giving a Democratic president the opportunity to appoint his successor, especially if a Republican president is anticipated after 2024. There have been no public indications of an imminent departure, and his health appears stable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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