Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: OpenAI's internal policy on pre-announcements
AI updated 7/2/2026, 6:03:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r3
correlates · strength 60%
r5
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns an extremely low probability (0.05%) to Sam Altman announcing GPT-5 in his next Tweet, indicating near-unanimous skepticism about such an announcement occurring imminently.
If Altman tweets about GPT-5, it could signal OpenAI's commitment to rapid innovation, potentially boosting market confidence in AI advancements and accelerating adoption of new models. A surprise announcement might also trigger short-term speculation and investment in AI-related stocks.
The market likely views an immediate GPT-5 announcement as improbable due to OpenAI's cautious approach to model releases, potential regulatory scrutiny, and the absence of prior hints or preparatory steps. A non-announcement would reinforce expectations of a slower, more deliberate release cycle.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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