Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential cancellation/postponement of EWC 2026
AI updated 6/30/2026, 11:00:38 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,158,657
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the listed hero picked the most times during EWC Dota 2026, originally scheduled for July 7-July 19, 2026. Only completed games will be considered for the purposes of this markets, including forfeits in games that start. In the case of a tie, this market will resolve to the hero with the higher win percentage. In case a tie persists, this market will resolve to the hero with higher ban rate. In case a tie still persists the market will resolve to the hero whose name comes first alphabetically. If a match does not complete for any reason, it will not be considered for the purposes of this market. If the competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the results of EWC Dota 2 is not determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information Dotabuff. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests an even split on whether Pugna will be the most picked hero at Dota EWC 2026, reflecting uncertainty given the balance of competitive dynamics and hero pick trends. Resolution hinges on official tournament data, with no clear bias toward Pugna's dominance.
Pugna's high skill ceiling and versatility in both midlane and support roles could lead to increased pick rates, especially if meta strategies favor his abilities. Strong performance in regional qualifiers or recent tournaments may signal his rising popularity among teams.
Pugna's low win rate and susceptibility to counter-picking may deter teams from selecting him frequently. Meta shifts toward heroes with higher mobility or teamfight impact could reduce his prominence in drafts.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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