Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Underestimation of Group K opponents
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:45:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
87%
ORYN Consensus
92%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
4.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 500.0¢
Entry: 84-90
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to the team in Group K that records the most total goals through the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the team that conceded fewer total goals during the group stage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the team that is listed first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Portugal is overwhelmingly favored to be the highest-scoring team in Group K of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with a market probability of 89.50%. The dominance of Cristiano Ronaldo's legacy, a strong squad depth, and favorable group dynamics support this outlook.
Portugal's attacking prowess, led by young stars like Gonçalo Ramos and Bernardo Silva, combined with a historically strong record in international tournaments, positions them well to outscore opponents in Group K. The group's composition (likely featuring lower-ranked teams) further enhances their scoring potential.
If Portugal underperforms due to injuries, tactical mismatches, or unexpected defensive lapses, another team in Group K (e.g., Slovakia or Iceland) could surpass their goal tally. Overconfidence or complacency in group-stage matches may also reduce their scoring output.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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