Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Highly competitive CONMEBOL qualification group
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:06:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
21%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 18-24
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
25 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Paraguay's probability of reaching the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently assessed at 20.50%, indicating a relatively low likelihood given the expanded tournament format and competitive CONMEBOL group. Historical performance and recent form suggest significant challenges ahead.
Paraguay could advance to the Round of 16 if they benefit from a favorable draw in the group stage, capitalize on key player performances (e.g., midfield creativity), and leverage home advantage in CONMEBOL qualifiers leading into 2026. A strong defensive record and tactical adaptability under new management could also tilt odds in their favor.
Paraguay faces stiff competition in CONMEBOL, with traditional powerhouses like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay likely to secure top spots. Recent inconsistent form, defensive vulnerabilities, and potential squad turnover could hinder progress, making Round of 16 qualification improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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