This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Highly competitive CONMEBOL qualification group
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:06:55 PM
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
21%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Paraguay's probability of reaching the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently assessed at 20.50%, indicating a relatively low likelihood given the expanded tournament format and competitive CONMEBOL group. Historical performance and recent form suggest significant challenges ahead.
Paraguay could advance to the Round of 16 if they benefit from a favorable draw in the group stage, capitalize on key player performances (e.g., midfield creativity), and leverage home advantage in CONMEBOL qualifiers leading into 2026. A strong defensive record and tactical adaptability under new management could also tilt odds in their favor.
Paraguay faces stiff competition in CONMEBOL, with traditional powerhouses like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay likely to secure top spots. Recent inconsistent form, defensive vulnerabilities, and potential squad turnover could hinder progress, making Round of 16 qualification improbable.
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Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 21% while ORYN AI estimates 20.5%.
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