Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data unavailability (Pyth/CME outages)
Calibrated 100% · raw 245% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:00:13 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
2.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Commodity Market Fluctuations
correlates · strength 60%
Energy Sector Performance
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 245.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of June 22 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Natural Gas (NG) reaching $3.50 during the week of June 22, 2026, is currently at 2.50%, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome. Historical volatility and seasonal trends suggest minimal likelihood of such a price spike.
A bullish scenario could emerge if geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains (e.g., Middle East conflicts or Russia-Ukraine escalation), or if extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes or prolonged cold snaps) significantly increase demand. Additionally, unexpected production cuts from major suppliers like the U.S. or Qatar could tighten supply.
A bearish outcome is more probable given current market conditions. Stable or increasing U.S. shale production, mild summer weather reducing cooling demand, and high storage levels could suppress prices. Economic slowdowns in key markets (e.g., China or Europe) would further dampen demand.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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