Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Decline in MrBeast's typical viewership
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:15:42 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,139,004
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
7d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (3.90%) that MrBeast's next video will achieve between 40 and 50 million views in its first week. Historical data indicates such viewership is uncommon but not unprecedented for his content.
MrBeast's recent videos, such as 'Last to Leave' challenges or large-scale philanthropic stunts, have frequently surpassed 40 million views. A viral concept or high-stakes competition could drive exceptional engagement, pushing views into this range.
MrBeast's viewership growth has shown signs of plateauing in 2024-2025, with fewer videos breaking the 40M mark compared to 2022-2023. Audience fatigue or algorithmic shifts could suppress view counts below the target range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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