Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Declining organic reach due to platform algorithm changes
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 5% probability that MrBeast's next YouTube video will achieve between 35 and 40 million views within the first 24 hours. This suggests low market confidence in the specified view range, likely due to MrBeast's recent content performance or audience saturation.
MrBeast's next video could surpass 35 million views if it features a highly viral challenge, charity stunt, or collaboration with a major influencer. His established audience and content strategy have historically driven high engagement, making this outcome plausible.
The market may be pricing in a decline in viewership due to audience fatigue or algorithmic changes reducing organic reach. If MrBeast's recent videos underperformed or if competition for attention increased, views could fall short of 35 million.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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