This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Key risk: Declining organic reach due to platform algorithm changes
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:40 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 5% probability that MrBeast's next YouTube video will achieve between 35 and 40 million views within the first 24 hours. This suggests low market confidence in the specified view range, likely due to MrBeast's recent content performance or audience saturation.
MrBeast's next video could surpass 35 million views if it features a highly viral challenge, charity stunt, or collaboration with a major influencer. His established audience and content strategy have historically driven high engagement, making this outcome plausible.
The market may be pricing in a decline in viewership due to audience fatigue or algorithmic changes reducing organic reach. If MrBeast's recent videos underperformed or if competition for attention increased, views could fall short of 35 million.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 5% while ORYN AI estimates 5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
