Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries to key players before or during the tournament
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:15:16 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
63%
ORYN Consensus
63%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 60-66
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Mexico has a 63% probability of reaching the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting moderate optimism based on historical performance and recent form. However, competition in the expanded 48-team tournament and potential group-stage challenges introduce uncertainty.
Mexico benefits from a relatively favorable group draw, strong squad depth in key positions, and home-field advantage as a CONCACAF participant. Improved tactical cohesion under recent coaching staff and a history of advancing past the group stage in past tournaments support the bullish outlook.
Mexico faces intense competition in a deeper 2026 World Cup, with potential group-stage matches against elite European or South American teams. Recent inconsistent performances, defensive vulnerabilities, and the expanded tournament format (more teams, fewer guaranteed 'easy' matches) could hinder advancement.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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