Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: IPO timing delays or cancellation
Calibrated 100% · raw 750% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 10:15:18 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
+7.5
Opportunity
4.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 750.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve based on Neutron Holdings' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 1 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently prices a 17.5% chance that Lime's market cap will fall within the $1.7B–$2B range at IPO close. This reflects skepticism given Lime's high valuation expectations relative to past performance and sector trends. The low probability suggests limited conviction in the bullish scenario.
Lime could achieve a $1.7B–$2B market cap if strong investor demand during the IPO drives a high valuation, supported by robust revenue growth in micromobility and partnerships with cities. A successful expansion into new markets (e.g., Asia) could further justify the valuation. Positive sentiment around ESG investments may also boost demand.
Lime's market cap may fall short of $1.7B if the IPO prices below expectations due to macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears), weak investor appetite for unprofitable startups, or regulatory challenges in key markets. Past profitability concerns or competition from incumbents (e.g., Bird) could also dampen valuation.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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