This market will resolve based on Neutron Holdings' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 1 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Key risk: IPO timing delays or cancellation
AI updated 6/26/2026, 10:15:18 PM
This market will resolve based on Neutron Holdings' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 1 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
+7.5
Opportunity
4.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market currently prices a 17.5% chance that Lime's market cap will fall within the $1.7B–$2B range at IPO close. This reflects skepticism given Lime's high valuation expectations relative to past performance and sector trends. The low probability suggests limited conviction in the bullish scenario.
Lime could achieve a $1.7B–$2B market cap if strong investor demand during the IPO drives a high valuation, supported by robust revenue growth in micromobility and partnerships with cities. A successful expansion into new markets (e.g., Asia) could further justify the valuation. Positive sentiment around ESG investments may also boost demand.
Lime's market cap may fall short of $1.7B if the IPO prices below expectations due to macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears), weak investor appetite for unprofitable startups, or regulatory challenges in key markets. Past profitability concerns or competition from incumbents (e.g., Bird) could also dampen valuation.
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Will Lime's market cap be between $1.7B and $2B at market close on IPO day? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 10% while ORYN AI estimates 17.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
