Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: LeBron's retirement announcement before contract signing
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:34:57 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,069,997
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
120d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve in favor of the listed date that LeBron James agrees to his next contract with an NBA team. If LeBron does not sign a contract, retires, or the date of agreement cannot be determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “July 7 or After”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market reflects a highly uncertain outcome regarding LeBron James' next NBA contract signing date, with a 50% probability assigned to July 4 or earlier. The resolution hinges on official announcements or credible sources, with a fallback to July 7 or later if no agreement is reached by October 31, 2026.
LeBron James may prioritize a high-profile signing on or before July 4 to maximize media attention, align with holiday celebrations, and secure a lucrative contract with a competitive team. His marketability and the NBA's 2026 free agency frenzy could drive an early agreement.
LeBron may delay signing past July 4 due to contract negotiations, team preferences, or personal considerations, such as health, family, or strategic moves. Retirement rumors or unresolved team dynamics could also push the signing date beyond July 7.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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