Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Lack of recent promotional activity
Calibrated 100% · raw 1185% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 3:15:39 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 42% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+11.8
Opportunity
8.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,455,311
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1185.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low 15.50% probability that 'Gone Girl' will rank as the #1 US Netflix movie in the week ending July 7, 2026. This reflects limited confidence in its ability to surpass competitors during the forecasted period.
'Gone Girl' could achieve the top spot due to potential viral trends, strong word-of-mouth, or a surge in viewership driven by recent promotions or cultural relevance. A short-term spike in interest could elevate its ranking.
The film may struggle to maintain relevance or visibility amid competition from newer releases, seasonal content, or sustained popularity of other titles. Declining interest or algorithmic disfavor could prevent it from reaching the top.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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