Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Netflix delays or technical issues in updating Top 10 rankings
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:01:17 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,950
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for 'GOAT' to be the top global Netflix movie this week (ending July 6, 2026) is neutral, with a 50% probability. The resolution depends on Netflix's global viewership data, which is influenced by recent releases, marketing, and seasonal trends.
GOAT's strong pre-release marketing, star power, and alignment with current global trends (e.g., sports or biographical themes) could drive it to the top spot. If it outperforms competitors like 'Inside Out 3' or 'Deadpool & Wolverine 2' in global viewership, the bull case holds.
Competition from blockbuster releases or Netflix's own algorithm prioritizing other titles could prevent GOAT from reaching the top. Weak word-of-mouth or cultural misalignment in key markets may also reduce its viewership relative to peers.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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