Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Misalignment with Lindor’s established player profile
AI updated 6/29/2026, 3:15:51 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,387,782
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
90d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
This market will resolve according to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records fewer caught stealings during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player with the higher on base percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more total bases during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Francisco Lindor leading MLB in stolen bases in 2026 is highly improbable (0.35%), reflecting skepticism due to his historical profile as a power hitter rather than a base-stealing specialist. The resolution criteria favor speed and efficiency, which may not align with Lindor's established strengths.
Lindor could significantly increase his stolen base attempts in 2026 if he adopts a more aggressive base-running approach, leveraging his speed (historically 10-15 SB/season) and improving on-base skills to capitalize on more opportunities. A shift in team strategy toward small-ball play (e.g., Mets under new management) could prioritize stolen bases as a tactical advantage.
Lindor’s primary value lies in power hitting (HR/extra-base hits), and his stolen base totals have plateaued around 10-15 per season, suggesting limited upside. Injuries or defensive adjustments (e.g., shift-heavy teams reducing steal opportunities) could further suppress his base-stealing frequency. Teams may prioritize power over speed in high-leverage situations.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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