Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: injury risk for star pitchers
Calibrated 100% · raw 280% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 2:45:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
15%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-2.8
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,387,432
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -280.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records fewer innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records the lower ERA during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 15.80% probability to Dylan Cease leading MLB pitchers in strikeouts during the 2026 regular season, reflecting moderate skepticism given his 2024 performance and potential competition. Historical data and pitcher workload trends suggest Cease is a strong candidate but faces stiff competition from established aces and rising stars.
Dylan Cease, coming off a dominant 2024 season (2.88 ERA, 207 strikeouts in 192 IP), has demonstrated elite strikeout ability and durability. His pitch arsenal (high-velocity fastball, devastating slider) and track record against top hitters position him well for sustained success. If he maintains health and workload, he could surpass competitors like Gerrit Cole or Shohei Ohtani in strikeouts.
Cease’s strikeout rates may regress toward the mean, especially if his velocity declines or batters adjust to his secondary pitches. Competition is fierce, with young pitchers like Hunter Greene or established aces like Jacob deGrom potentially outperforming him. Injuries or workload management could also limit his innings, reducing strikeout opportunities.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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