Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Hamilton’s unproven MLB performance
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:30:48 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,076,166
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
91d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve according to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records fewer caught stealings during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player with the higher on base percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more total bases during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of David Hamilton leading MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season is extremely low at 2.95%, reflecting his current standing as a minor-league prospect with limited MLB experience. The market heavily favors established speedsters like Trea Turner, Adolis García, or emerging talents such as Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Hamilton could emerge as a dominant base-stealer if he gains significant MLB playing time in 2026, capitalizing on his speed and improving plate discipline. A breakout season with 60+ steals would require elite efficiency (low caught stealing rate) and a high on-base percentage to outpace competitors. Injuries to top contenders or a shift in team strategy toward aggressive baserunning could also elevate his chances.
Hamilton’s chances are undermined by his lack of MLB experience and the crowded field of proven base-stealers. Established stars like Turner (historically consistent) and García (high steal totals) pose significant competition, while injuries or platoon roles could limit his opportunities. The market’s low probability suggests skepticism about his ability to surpass these hurdles.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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