Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility in Bitcoin price leading to reduced trading activity
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 2:00:52 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
54%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
0.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 50-57
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the week of June 29 2026, any 1-minute candle for Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.COIN%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.COIN%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) has a 53.50% probability of hitting a weekly low of $140 by June 29, 2026, indicating a near-even chance of either outcome. The market's neutrality reflects balanced risk factors, with no dominant bullish or bearish sentiment.
COIN could hit $140 weekly low if Bitcoin (COIN's primary revenue driver) rebounds strongly due to institutional adoption, ETF inflows, or halving-driven scarcity. Regulatory clarity in the U.S. or favorable macroeconomic conditions (e.g., lower interest rates) may also boost trading volumes and investor confidence.
COIN may fail to reach $140 if Bitcoin enters a prolonged bear market, regulatory crackdowns (e.g., SEC enforcement actions) suppress trading activity, or competition from decentralized exchanges (DEXs) erodes market share. Macroeconomic downturns could also reduce discretionary spending on crypto.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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