Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory unpredictability
AI updated 7/2/2026, 3:33:23 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Indirectly related to tech and finance: Manifund's loan repayment, possibly influenced by market trends and investor confidence, similar to factors affecting Claude Fable 5 restoration
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to global events: 2026 FIFA World Cup, Trump's speech, Bitcoin prices
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
4 points
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers by June 29, 2026, stands at 10.50%, indicating low market confidence in a resolution. The suspension by the US government introduces regulatory uncertainty, though historical precedents suggest potential for resolution.
A resolution to 'Yes' could occur if the US government lifts the suspension or if Anthropic successfully negotiates a workaround (e.g., restricted access with public announcements). Public pressure or legal challenges may also force a restoration. The model's popularity and potential economic benefits could incentivize a swift resolution.
The market may resolve to 'No' if the US government maintains the suspension due to national security or compliance concerns. Anthropic may also choose not to restore access if legal risks outweigh benefits. Delays in negotiations or bureaucratic hurdles could extend the suspension beyond June 29.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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