Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Time's historical preference for human awardees
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:49:59 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Correlation with Social Media
correlates · strength 60%
Correlation with Pop Culture
correlates · strength 60%
Correlation with Entertainment
correlates · strength 60%
Correlation with Climate
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 0.06% probability to ChatGPT being named Time's 2023 Person of the Year, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome. Historical precedent and editorial trends suggest a preference for human figures over AI in this category.
ChatGPT could be selected if Time's editorial team prioritizes technological breakthroughs or AI's societal impact in 2023, particularly if its influence on global discourse, policy, or culture is deemed unparalleled. A late-year surge in public or corporate adoption might sway the decision.
Time has historically favored human figures (e.g., Volodymyr Zelensky in 2022), and AI lacks the agency or narrative depth typically required for the award. The market's near-zero probability reflects skepticism about editorial alignment with an AI recipient.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
