Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected early knockout-stage exit due to referee decisions or VAR controversies
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:00:16 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
72%
ORYN Consensus
72%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,076,166
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 68-74
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Brazil has a 73% probability of reaching the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting strong historical performance and favorable group-stage expectations. The outcome hinges on avoiding a challenging early-stage draw and maintaining consistency under new tournament formats.
Brazil’s deep squad talent, historical dominance, and recent strong performances under experienced coaches (e.g., Tite, Adenor Leonardo Bacchi) bolster their chances. The expanded 48-team format increases opportunities for South American teams to advance, while Brazil’s likely placement in a weaker group (e.g., avoiding Europe’s top seeds) reduces early elimination risks.
A tough group-stage draw (e.g., facing two top-10 FIFA-ranked teams) could derail Brazil’s progress, especially with potential injuries to key players like Vinícius Júnior or Rodrygo. Historical underperformance in knockout stages (e.g., 2022 quarterfinal exit) and Brazil’s current squad depth concerns raise doubts about sustained consistency.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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