This market will resolve based on Bending Spoons' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 1 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Key risk: IPO delay or cancellation before August 31, 2026
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:15:46 PM
This market will resolve based on Bending Spoons' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 1 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Crowd Consensus
57%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
-15.5
Opportunity
10.1
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a moderate probability (57.50%) that Bending Spoons' market cap will fall within the $19B–$22B range on its IPO day. Key uncertainties include the final IPO price, investor demand, and broader market conditions during the IPO window (July 1, 2024).
Bending Spoons could achieve a market cap in this range if the IPO is priced at a premium due to strong investor appetite, robust financial performance, or strategic positioning in high-growth sectors like AI or gaming. A successful roadshow and limited supply could drive demand, pushing the closing price toward the upper end of the range.
The market cap may fall short of the target range if the IPO is priced too high, investor sentiment sours due to macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears, high interest rates), or competitive pressures erode growth prospects. Weak secondary market performance on day one could also suppress the closing price below $19B.
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Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 57.5% while ORYN AI estimates 42%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
