Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: IPO delay or cancellation before August 31, 2026
Calibrated 100% · raw 1550% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:15:46 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
57%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
-15.5
Opportunity
10.1
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1550.0¢
Entry: 54-60
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve based on Bending Spoons' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 1 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a moderate probability (57.50%) that Bending Spoons' market cap will fall within the $19B–$22B range on its IPO day. Key uncertainties include the final IPO price, investor demand, and broader market conditions during the IPO window (July 1, 2024).
Bending Spoons could achieve a market cap in this range if the IPO is priced at a premium due to strong investor appetite, robust financial performance, or strategic positioning in high-growth sectors like AI or gaming. A successful roadshow and limited supply could drive demand, pushing the closing price toward the upper end of the range.
The market cap may fall short of the target range if the IPO is priced too high, investor sentiment sours due to macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears, high interest rates), or competitive pressures erode growth prospects. Weak secondary market performance on day one could also suppress the closing price below $19B.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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