Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sudden escalation in US-Iran tensions
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:45:24 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
11d
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
52 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a near-even split on whether Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi will attend a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026. The outcome hinges on Oman’s historical role as a mediator and the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Gulf.
Oman has historically facilitated indirect US-Iran diplomacy, and Al Busaidi’s attendance would signal Oman’s continued mediation efforts. A US-Iran thaw or regional crisis could accelerate formal talks, increasing the likelihood of his participation. Oman’s neutral stance and diplomatic leverage with both sides make this plausible.
Tensions between the US and Iran remain high, and Oman’s influence may not suffice to broker formal talks. If Iran rejects US terms or the US shifts focus away from Iran, such a meeting may not materialize. Al Busaidi’s attendance could also be hindered by domestic or regional instability in Oman.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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