Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Overestimation of Austria's ceiling in knockout stages
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:30:15 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,296
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -10.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
21d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
19 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Austria has a historically low probability (1.55%) of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup final due to competitive structural challenges in European football qualification and recent performance trends. The market reflects skepticism about Austria's ability to overcome top-tier opponents in a tournament setting.
Austria could capitalize on a favorable draw in the 2026 World Cup group stage, leveraging strong domestic club performances (e.g., Red Bull Salzburg) and a resurgent generation of players to navigate knockout rounds. Historical outliers like Croatia's 2018 runner-up finish suggest underdog potential in European football.
Austria's recent FIFA rankings (outside top 20) and weak qualifying campaigns (e.g., 2022 World Cup failure) indicate systemic limitations in consistency at the tournament level. European qualification groups are increasingly competitive, reducing Austria's margin for error.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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