Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential tough group stage opponents
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:34:14 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
85%
ORYN Consensus
87%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 82-88
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Austria has an 85% probability of advancing to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, indicating strong market confidence. This is supported by Austria's recent competitive performances and favorable group stage draw prospects.
Austria's current FIFA ranking (top 30) and strong domestic league (Bundesliga) talent pool suggest a high likelihood of group stage advancement. Historical performance in UEFA competitions (e.g., Euro 2024 quarterfinalists) further bolsters confidence.
Austria's historical struggles in World Cup knockout stages (last advancement: 1998) and potential tough group stage opponents (e.g., Brazil, France) could hinder progress. Injuries to key players like David Alaba or Konrad Laimer may reduce competitiveness.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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