Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Tournament format changes (48 teams) increasing competition
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:15:13 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
49%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 45-52
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests Argentina has a near-even chance (48.50%) of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. The outcome hinges on performance in the group stage, knockout rounds, and potential tournament dynamics.
Argentina’s strong squad depth, led by emerging talents and experienced players, could navigate a tough group stage and deep tournament run. Historical success (2022 champions) and tactical adaptability under current management may favor advancement.
A potential early exit due to a challenging group (e.g., Brazil, France, or Spain in the same stage) or underperformance in knockout rounds could eliminate Argentina before the semifinals. Fatigue, injuries, or tactical mismatches may also hinder progress.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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