Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Fight cancellation or postponement beyond July 11, 2026
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:30:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 41-47
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
6 points
Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Nazim Sadykhov and Matheus Camilo at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, scheduled for June 27, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. "Under 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond July 11, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the UFC Fight Night bout between Nazim Sadykhov and Matheus Camilo indicates a slight bearish lean, with a 44.50% probability assigned to the fight lasting over 2.5 rounds. The resolution hinges on the fight's duration relative to the 2:30 mark of Round 3.
A bullish outcome (Over 2.5 Rounds) would suggest the fight is likely to be a closely contested, tactical bout with potential for a late finish, or a high-stakes battle where both fighters aim to outlast each other. The 44.50% probability implies some market confidence in this scenario, possibly driven by the fighters' known tendencies for endurance or past performances in similar matchups.
A bearish outcome (Under 2.5 Rounds) would indicate the fight is expected to end early, either via knockout, submission, or referee stoppage, suggesting one fighter may dominate early or a significant skill mismatch exists. The market's 44.50% probability reflects a near-even split, but the bear case could be supported by Sadykhov's recent form or Camilo's aggressive striking tendencies.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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