This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Key risk: Injury or late replacement affecting fight style
AI updated 6/27/2026, 10:18:15 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market for the fight between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison ending by submission is evenly split, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome. The resolution hinges on the fighters' grappling skills and fight dynamics, with no clear favorite based on current data.
Gable Steveson, a collegiate wrestling champion with UFC experience, has a strong submission grappling background, increasing the likelihood of a submission victory. If he secures top control early, he could force a tapout or referee stoppage. Elisha Ellison's recent performances also suggest a preference for ground-based finishes.
Elisha Ellison's striking dominance and recent victories highlight a potential stand-up or KO/TKO finish, reducing the probability of a submission. Steveson's limited UFC experience and Ellison's ability to avoid submissions could lead to a decision or KO outcome. Historical data favors striking finishes in similar matchups.
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Will the fight be won by submission? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
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