Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or late replacement affecting fight style
AI updated 6/27/2026, 10:18:15 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for the fight between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison ending by submission is evenly split, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome. The resolution hinges on the fighters' grappling skills and fight dynamics, with no clear favorite based on current data.
Gable Steveson, a collegiate wrestling champion with UFC experience, has a strong submission grappling background, increasing the likelihood of a submission victory. If he secures top control early, he could force a tapout or referee stoppage. Elisha Ellison's recent performances also suggest a preference for ground-based finishes.
Elisha Ellison's striking dominance and recent victories highlight a potential stand-up or KO/TKO finish, reducing the probability of a submission. Steveson's limited UFC experience and Ellison's ability to avoid submissions could lead to a decision or KO outcome. Historical data favors striking finishes in similar matchups.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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