Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential fight cancellation or postponement due to injuries or other issues
AI updated 6/27/2026, 10:18:02 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Gable Steveson" if Gable Steveson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Elisha Ellison" if Elisha Ellison is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims) is evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty in the outcome of this preliminary bout. Both fighters are relatively unproven in the heavyweight division, contributing to the lack of a clear favorite.
Steveson's wrestling pedigree and Olympic background could give him an advantage in a grappling-heavy matchup, potentially leading to a decision win if he avoids early stoppage. His athleticism and cardio might outlast Ellison in a grueling fight.
Ellison's striking accuracy and power, if underestimated, could result in a quick KO or TKO, especially if Steveson struggles to take him down. Steveson's inexperience in the heavyweight division could be exploited by a more seasoned fighter like Ellison.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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