Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond 7 days
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 12:48:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
-5.0
Opportunity
3.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,967,788
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
0h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether any player achieves a Quadra Kill during Game 1. In League of Legends, a Quadra Kill occurs when a single player kills 4 enemy champions in rapid succession. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves a Quadra Kill during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves a Quadra Kill. A Penta Kill (5 kills in rapid succession) also counts as a Quadra Kill having occurred for the purposes of this market. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether a Quadra Kill occurred prior to stoppage. If no Quadra Kill occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?' is evenly split at 50%, reflecting uncertainty about the likelihood of a quadra kill occurring in the first game of a League of Legends match. Quadra kills are rare, with historical data suggesting low probability in any single game.
A quadra kill is possible if a player on either team dominates lane matchups, secures key objectives like Baron or Dragon, or exploits enemy positioning errors. High-elo or mechanically skilled players may increase the odds, especially in games with uneven team compositions.
Quadra kills are statistically uncommon, with most games concluding without a single player achieving four kills in rapid succession. Team coordination, defensive playstyles, and balanced matchups reduce the likelihood. Even a pentakill (5 kills) would count as a quadra kill, but such events are even rarer.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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